It’s like clockwork. Every time my writing approaches the Reds negatively, they immediately go on a run. Take Jonathan India, for example. I was critical in early May of India’s poor start to the season, and right on cue, he started having the best hitting stretch of his young career. A few days ago, after the Reds’ pitiful performance in a three game series versus the Washington Nationals, I wrote that it might be time to give up on the Reds playoff chances. Of course, they’ve gone on to win three straight.
I’ve come to terms with the fact that no matter what I say or do, I’m going to be wrong. There’s no rhyme or reason with anything that happens with the Reds this year. It’s a rollercoaster of a season – only it’s the kind that makes you queasy and you can’t wait to get off.
Could the Reds still make the playoffs? The hell if I know. If I had to guess, I’d say no, but that probably means they’ll squeak into the last Wild Card spot just to spite me. This team is too inconsistent – at pretty much every level – to get to the postseason. With the MLB Trade Deadline, July 30, it’s time for the Reds to start asking tough questions: namely, who’s going to be around when the Reds finally get over the hump?
This is the third edition of the Reds Long-Term Player Rankings, and this may have been the easiest list (for me, anyway) to craft yet. Despite the up-and-down nature of this Reds season, a very obvious core has emerged. I’d be doing everything in my power to keep this core around for the long haul. As for the rest? Bon voyage.
If you’re like me, and you think the Reds aren’t consistent enough to reach the playoffs, then you probably want the Reds to trim some fat from their roster at the deadline this year. It’s going to sting a bit knowing that – after stripping down the roster – the Reds playoff chances will be all but over, but I don’t quite see it that way. This team is still very young. There’s an opportunity to continue to add quality youth. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays, the team the Reds just beat. The Rays entered the game with a 52 - 51 record (better than the Reds), and they just traded away one of their best hitters (Randy Arozarena) and best pitchers (Zach Eflin). They could have kept the band together and made a run for that last Wild Card spot, but they understood that their team just doesn’t have it this year. Better to admit it now and prepare for next year. Besides, for all we know, maybe the Rays still have it in them to compete for that Wild Card.
This is the spot the Reds find themselves now. It’s better for the Reds to come to terms with the team they’ve built (it’s not good enough) and reload for 2025. There are some tradable assets on this team. The Reds were able to turn Tyler Mahle into Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at the 2022 deadline – find another deal like that, please.
Okay, enough of my pontificating. Here is the Reds 2024 Long-Term Player Rankings. Enjoy.
(In descending order, last year’s ranking is in parenthesis.)
The Unfortunate Realities of Baseball
46 (25) RP Tejay Antone - 30 y/o
By all accounts, Tejay Antone is a great guy, which is why it’s such a bummer his elbow keeps betraying him. The fireballer will have another elbow procedure and plans on making a comeback attempt, but after three major operations to his arm, this could be the end to a once-promising career.
It’s another reminder of the risks that come with pushing velocity, spin rate and movement to the utmost. Injury rates for pitchers are sky high, and Antone is another casualty caught up in the pursuit of pushing pitchers’ arms to the absolute breaking point. It’s a shame, but Antone is by no means the first talented pitcher to have his career derailed. Tragically, the way baseball’s played today, it’s a guarantee he won’t be the last.
Definition of “Replacement Level Player”
45 (N/A) OF Austin Slater - 31 y/o
44 (N/A) C Austin Wynns - 33 y/o
43 (N/A) OF Nick Martini - 34 y/o
42 (27) C Luke Maile - 33 y/o
41 (N/A) INF Santiago Espinal - 29 y/o
There’s not much to see here. Only Espinal is under 30, and he’ll be reaching his third decade in November. Slater was acquired in early July to provide some much needed outfield depth, but he’ll almost certainly be gone by next year. Wynns had a fun debut, hitting three doubles in his first game as a Red, but has barely played since. Martini and Maile are nearing the end of their careers and neither has given the Reds much reason to think there will be a resurgence. Every one of these players could be replaced easily, and without a second thought.
What Would You Say You Do Here?
40 (N/A) RP Brooks Kriske - 30 y/o
39 (34) RP Casey Legumina - 27 y/o
38 (N/A) RP Christian Roa - 25 y/o
37 (N/A) RP Justin Wilson - 36 y/o
36 (N/A) RP Yosver Zulueta - 26 y/o
Kriske sounds like bland breakfast cereal and it feels like Legumina has been here for a quarter century and is still in the minors. Are we sure Roa and Legumina aren’t the same guy? Wilson has been marginal at best after the Reds signed him to be their primary lefty-on-lefty reliever. Zulueta has some intriguing traits, but through two MLB appearances, he’s as big of an unknown as there is on this team. Wilson is almost certainly gone after this season, but maybe one of the other four can emerge down the stretch as a future asset.
AAAA Hitters
35 (N/A) 2B/SS Liván Soto - 24 y/o
34 (N/A) OF Blake Dunn - 25 y/o
33 (N/A) OF Jacob Hurtubise - 26 y/o
At least all these guys are under team control for a while, because none appears to be MLB-caliber right now. Soto is only 24, but he’s on his fourth MLB organization after falling out with the Braves, Angels and Orioles. Dunn and Hurtubise both have some speed, but with neither showing much of a knack for getting on-base during their brief exposure to MLB pitching, they’ll have an uphill battle to get regular playing time. Best-case scenario: one of them turns into a TJ. Friedl-esque spark plug.
(Not) Providing (Much) Relief
32 (N/A) RP Brent Suter - 34 y/o
31 (N/A) RP Emilio Pagán - 33 y/o
30 (21) RP Ian Gibaut - 30 y/o
29 (N/A) RP/SP Nick Martinez - 33 y/o
28 (24) RP Tony Santillan - 27 y/o
27 (19) RP Buck Farmer - 33 y/o
26 (17) RP Lucas Sims - 30 y/o
25 (31) RP Sam Moll - 32 y/o
The bullpen was one of the main reasons the Reds had such an enjoyable season in 2023. In 2024, it’s been a disappointment. Suter has been…fine. But that’s about it, and the 34-year-old probably won’t return after the season. There were many who worried that Pagán’s penchant for allowing the long ball wouldn’t be a great fit for hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Surprise, surprise…they were right! Gibaut hasn’t played yet in 2024 after emerging as a solid piece in 2023, and given his lack of a track-record, it’s questionable to expect him to ever return to that form. Santillan is finally back after spending much of the last two seasons in AAA, and if he can be the pitcher he was in 2021, the Reds will be getting a much-needed boost to the bullpen. Martinez, Farmer, and Sims, meanwhile, could all be traded if the Reds find interested suitors, as they’ll all hit free agency at the end of the year. At least Moll has pitched well enough – but as the Reds sole deadline acquisition last year, it’s safe to say we all probably expected a little more.
Outfielders Getting Way Too Many At-Bats
24 (16) OF Jake Fraley - 29 y/o
23 (43) OF Stuart Fairchild - 28 y/o
22 (9) OF Will Benson - 26 y/o
No position group has taken more lumps than the Reds outfield. Last year, this looked like a group with an abundance of skill. Today, most Reds fans wouldn’t mind a complete overhaul. Fraley has almost completely lost the ability to hit for power. Fairchild has had a few fun moments, but he makes some boneheaded plays and still can’t hit right-handed pitching. Benson’s propensity for swings-and-misses has really put a damper on his season. After looking like a mainstay, he’s found himself teetering on a return to AAA at times. I don’t know what the solution is, but heading into 2025, these three cannot be getting the majority of the at-bats.
Potential Is There, Production Is Not
21 (N/A) SP Connor Phillips - 23 y/o
20 (33) SP Lyon Richardson - 24 y/o
Two late season call ups, both Phillips and Richardson showed enough to make Reds fans excited about the plethora of pitching depth within the organization. Fast-forward to 2024, and these two young pitchers have fallen on tough times. Phillips has a mind-boggling 10.11 ERA in 14 starts in Louisville, and while Richardson wasn’t that much better to start the year either, at least he’s begun to right the ship. Phillips’ drastic regression deserves its own research grant. After showing promise in limited big league action last year, it’s back to the drawing board for these two young starters.
Trade Bait
19 (23) RP Fernando Cruz - 34 y/o
18 (11) CP Alexis Díaz - 27 y/o
17 (N/A) SP Frankie Montas - 31 y/o
16 (N/A) 1B/3B Jeimer Candelario - 30 y/o
If I was the Reds’ front office, I’d be taking as many calls as possible for these four players. Cruz’s and Díaz’s pitching has been emblematic of the Reds entire season: explosive and insurmountable on one pitch, unhinged and insufficient on the next. Let them be someone else’s headache. Cruz’s splitter is arguably the most dominant pitch in baseball right now, and Díaz, when he isn’t walking every other batter, can still slam the door with the best of them. Their trade value isn’t at its highest, and trading both might be seen as a sign of surrender, but it’s in the Reds’ best interest to continue to stockpile talent. Who wants to keep rolling the dice with these two anyway?
Montas began the year looking like an ace, but he’s settled into his role as the team’s sometimes on/sometimes off fourth starter. After two straight injury-plagued seasons, 2024 counts as a win for Montas – and by extension, the Reds. Montas will be a free agent at the end of the year, and after demonstrating the ability to remain healthy, a contender could be willing to part with an asset or two to shore up their postseason rotation. Candelario, meanwhile, has shaken off a horrific start to become a dependable bat in the heart of the lineup. That said, Reds fans could riot if he has another slow start as he heads into the second year of a three-year contract, so the Reds should probably strike while the iron’s hot and move the 30-year-old corner infielder for prospects.
Limbo
15 (13) 2B Jonathan India - 27 y/o
Easily the most difficult player to slot in this entire exercise, India has been a beast for much of the season. His plate discipline is as good as ever, and he’s started barrelling the ball at a much higher rate since the weather’s warmed. Without his table-setting at the top of the Reds’ order, it’s frightening to imagine where the Reds would be today. Still, the Reds would probably be wise to trade the 27-year-old second baseman while they can.
Right now, India’s trade value is at its maximum. Teams like the desperate Yankees might be willing to pay a king’s ransom for his services. India’s been great – and he’s definitely a leader in the clubhouse – but the opportunity to acquire one of the Yanks’ talented minor-league outfielders could be too great to pass up. The Reds just watched the Rays send one of their best hitters packing; if the Reds want to be like the Rays, this is their chance to prove it.
Jury's Still Out
14 (15) CF T.J. Friedl - 28 y/o
13 (5) SP Graham Ashcraft - 26 y/o
12 (N/A) SP Carson Spiers - 25 y/o
11 (12) SP Brandon Williamson - 26 y/o
10 (N/A) RF Rece Hinds - 23 y/o
9 (8) 3B Noelvi Marté - 22 y/o
8 (7) 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 24 y/o
I’d love to tell you that all of these players are foundational pieces. I’d love to make the case that they’re all fundamental to the Reds’ future success. Unfortunately, there’s just not enough evidence to suggest that’s the case.
Friedl is an exciting player and he’s proven his power surge in 2023 was no fluke, but he’s nearly 30 and already has a lengthy injury history. Ashcraft has been volatile, but even if he can’t make it as a starter in the big leagues, his stuff should translate nicely to the bullpen. Spiers has been a revelation after getting called up, giving the Reds consistency in the back-end of their rotation. He’s the 2024-version of Williamson, who filled a similar role down the stretch last year. I like Williamson a little more, but either way, it’s comforting to know the Reds have two players who have some proven ability to get outs at the MLB level.
Hinds burst onto the scene with a first-week performance that rivaled any in baseball history. After the All-Star break, though, it was a different story, and the 23-year-old slugger is now back in AAA. Still, Hinds showed he can slug with the best of the best, and that alone makes him one of the Reds most important pieces moving forward. Marté has mostly struggled since returning to the Reds post-suspension. He faces more questions about his future than ever right now, but he still has the same tools that made him the Reds’ top prospect heading into the season. Encarnacion-Strand has had a nightmare of a year: first he struggled mightily, then he was sidelined after being hit by a pitch, then it was discovered by a subsequent x-ray that he had a previous, undetected fracture that may have been the source of his struggles in the first place. If you thought the Reds’ medical staff couldn’t keep disappointing you, think again.
Building Blocks
7 (14) C Tyler Stephenson - 27 y/o
6 (10) 1B/LF Spencer Steer - 26 y/o
5 (6) SP Nick Lodolo - 26 y/o
4 (3) SS/2B Matt McLain - 24 y/o
3 (2) SP Andrew Abbott - 25 y/o
2 (4) SP Hunter Greene - 24 y/o
1 (1) SS Elly De La Cruz - 22 y/o
Here we are: the cream of the crop. The seven names above are the real foundation. If the Reds are ever going to accomplish anything of note, their success starts with this group.
Stephenson went back to being a good offensive catcher for the Reds, regaining the ability to drive the ball after mostly floundering for much of last year. Steer, meanwhile, has blossomed into a super-utility man who continues to produce runs no matter where in the field he lines up (which has included first base, second base, left field and right field this year). Lodolo still needs to find a way to stay healthy for an entire year, but he’s harnessed his insane stuff to become borderline-dominant at times. McLain was the Reds best hitter last year, and despite missing the entire year so far with a shoulder injury, he still projects to be an essential piece when he hopefully returns in August.
Lastly, we have Abbott, Greene and De La Cruz. There are still some questions about each, but they’ve been reliably answering them all year. Abbott has proven that his exceptional rookie year was no fluke, taking hold of the Reds number two spot in the rotation early in the year and never looking back. He doesn’t have the raw talent of Lodolo or Greene, but he’s got a bulldog mentality and almost never beats himself. Greene, on the other hand, has finally tapped into his prodigious talent and is living up to his big contract. He does have control issues, but between his steady improvement year over year, and his ability to go deep into games and generate lots of swings-and-misses, Greene is close to becoming the ace the Reds envisioned when they drafted him second overall in 2017.
De La Cruz, however, deserves his own paragraph. In fewer than two seasons, the 22-year-old do-it-all superstar has transformed the Reds from boring and emotionless, to brilliant, agonizing, preposterous and singular. He is one-of-a-kind, and by extension, so are the Reds. Nobody steals more bases than Elly. His power registers on the Richter Scale. He could throw a baseball to the moon. And the best part? He keeps getting better. It’s not perfect yet – not even close – but as long as De La Cruz keeps making improvements, there's no telling how great he can become. Whenever he gets there, don’t be surprised if he takes the Reds along for the ride too.
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