How Good Are the Reds Actually?

As Larry David might say, “Prettyyyyy…pretty good.”

And honestly, they might even be better than that.  Then again, maybe not

Their 24 - 2 sheer dismantling of the Baltimore Orioles isn’t the most indicative of their future success, but the Reds have already proven something this year: they can play with some very talented teams, and they can beat the crap out of them too.

And by losing their first two in a three-game series to the lowly Miami Marlins, the Reds have proven that they can lose to some of the least talented teams in baseball as well.  It’s hardly raises any eyebrows in baseball these days if someone mentions how the New York Mets’ payroll dwarfs the Marlins by a factor of nearly five – but when the penny-pinching Reds nearly double the Marlins’ payroll, that’s noteworthy.

The Reds, without question, are good.  And, without question, the Reds are not.

Reality check: they’re only 12 - 13 on the year.  A below-.500 ball club.  And yet, they have the fourth-best run differential in all of baseball.  Bill Parcells used to say, “You are what your record says you are,” but in this case, he’s dead wrong.  Yeah, that’s right, I’m putting the Big Tuna on blast.

There’s just something about the Reds this year that just feels…I dunno…right.

Maybe it’s the fact that their starting pitching has been outstanding.  Maybe it’s that they have a true, super-duper star in Elly De La Cruz.  Maybe it’s the bullpen that looks diverse and versatile.  Maybe some of that Tito Francona magic is finally starting to rub off.  Who knows?  One way or another, the product on the field is starting to live up to the offseason hype.

12 - 13 never felt so good.

It helps when just about every offseason move they made has paid off – and in a big way, too.  The Brady Singer/Jonathan India swap looks more and more lopsided by the day.  What were the Royals thinking when they traded a promising, young pitcher for a declining, limited second-baseman with no power to speak of?  They’d probably like that one back, but the Reds will tell them to pound sand.  Singer is here to stay.

And what’s really exciting about the Singer addition is he isn’t being asked to be anything more than himself.  The Reds don’t need him to be an ace.  They’ve already got one – heck, they might have two.

Hunter Green and Nick Lodolo both came out of the gates scorching hot, dusting hitters left and right with filthy stuff and pinpoint control.  Both were roughed up a bit in their most recent starts, but between the two, neither has an ERA greater than 2.35 through almost a month of baseball.  Add in Singer’s great start (3.38 ERA) and Andrew Abbott picking up right where he left off (1.64 ERA in his two starts since returning from injury), and the Reds rotation could legitimately compete with anyone.

This gets even more exciting when projecting them for the playoffs.  If the Reds make it to the postseason (and yes, that’s still an if), their rotation could give them the edge over…well, anybody.  Besides having four extremely tough starters to throw at opposing hitters, a playoff series would likely see Nick Martinez (arguably the one weak-link in the rotation) move to a long-relief role, a role he’s probably better suited for anyway.

That brings us to another hidden strength of this team: their versatile bullpen.  Tito Francona is likely drooling at the thought of all of his options.  Even now – with the playoffs months away – the Reds have multiple relievers capable of going multiple innings.  Brent Suter has made a living out of doing that very thing.  Graham Ashcraft was literally a starting pitcher last year.  Both have already demonstrated an ability to enter a game and stay on the mound beyond a single frame.  That’s a luxury few – if any – other teams have.

Adding to the list of positive offseason pickups, reliever Taylor Rodgers has been steady as the Reds primary lefthanded option out of the ‘pen.  Scott Barlow, another offseason addition, has been fairly solid in his nine appearances.  Meanwhile, Tony Santillan, who spent much of 2024 in AAA, has been nothing short of dominant in his eleven appearances, allowing just two runs for a sterling 1.59 ERA.  Even more impressive: the Reds are doing all of this without one of their best relievers from last year, left-hander Sam Moll, who is currently on the IL-15.

So the starting pitching is great, and the relievers aren’t half-bad either.  How about the lineup? 

There’s some good and some bad, but like the Reds as a whole, there’s been a lot more of the former than the latter recently.

Once again, the offseason additions lead the way.  Austin Hays has been outstanding since returning from the injury list.  Of course, he’s not going to be batting better than .400 with an OPS greater than 1.200 for the entire year, but he provides legitimate protection for De La Cruz, something that was almost non-existent last year.  Hays was an All-Star just two seasons ago.  That no one outside of the Reds was willing to pay this man more than $5 million for one season is just as hard to understand as the Royals willingly trading Singer for India.

And Hays is just the tip of the iceberg.  Gavin Lux, who was acquired via trade with the Dodgers, apparently can’t do anything except hit the ball hard, and when he’s not at the plate he’s giving the Reds super-flexibility with their lineups.  He’s already appeared at three positions this year, and his .319 batting average has made him extraordinarily difficult for Francona to sit.  He’s become the Reds de facto super-sub, and it’s sorely needed with Spencer Steer, the guy who was previously in the super-sub role, struggling to hit to start the season.

Even some of the Reds smaller, less noticeable additions have paid dividends.  Jose Trevino, another trade acquisition, has helped form possibly the strongest group of catchers in the majors along with Austin Wynns – and that’s without Tyler Stephenson, one of the best hitting catchers in the league, having taken a single swing this year to this point.  The Reds front office hadn’t quite earned the benefit of the doubt, but this year, they’re really proving their mettle.

It’s still early, obviously.  25 games is a miniscule sample size.  We’re not even a sixth of the way through the season.  But there are some clear takeaways.

1. The starting pitching is elite

2. The bullpen is diverse and versatile

3. The lineup lacks a Dodgers-or-Yankees-level pop, but they make up for it with an order that puts pressure on pitchers by being tough outs and making lots of loud, hard contact

Is that enough?  Actually, it might be.