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Writer's pictureIan Altenau

Best-Case/Worst-Case: NFC South Edition


Last year was a “failure to launch” sort of season for the NFC South.  Okay, sure, the Buccaneers probably weren’t complaining about going 9 - 8 in their first post-Tom Brady season.  But the Buccaneers are still basking in the glow of their 2022 Super Bowl run – the fact that Baker Mayfield looked competent and led the Bucs to a Wild Card win?  That’s just gravy.


But what about the rest of the NFC South?  The Saints couldn’t have been happy with their 9 - 8 finish.  They lost out on the NFC South crown due to tie-breakers and missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season.  The Falcons have to be kicking themselves over a wasted season with Desmond Ridder at quarterback.  Despite having a group of extremely talented skill position players, Ridder did nothing but hold them back, and so the Falcons stumbled their way to 7 - 10.  As for the Panthers…don’t even get me started on the Panthers.


Want to know how to run a team into the ground in six years?  Just follow the David Tepper Playbook!  Since Tepper acquired the team in 2018, the Panthers have not made the playoffs, have not finished better than 7 - 10, have seen an exodus of coaches, players, and draft picks, and just went through one of the worst seasons in their franchise history – and this was after trading up in last year’s draft to select number one pick Bryce Young!  If it wasn’t enough of a kick in the pants for Panthers fans watching their pint-sized and bewildered “franchise savior” get his teeth kicked in on a regular basis behind a dismal offensive line, number two pick C.J. Stroud led a plucky Texans team to a surprise division crown and Wild Card win.  It truly doesn’t get worse than that.


Alright, so 2023 was bad, but 2024 will be different…right?  It has to be.  It’s year two for three of the four QBs in this division, and that’s when you can start throwing out all the clichés.  You know: this year, he really understands the playbook, and he's more comfortable in the system, and the ever-popular he looks bigger and stronger than last year.  Baker Mayfield?  Last year wasn’t an illusion.  Bryce Young is about to take the leap.  Derek Carr’s going to be better.  And even though it’s his first year in Atlanta, Kirk Cousins has to be better than Ridder.  By year’s end, we could be talking about the NFC South as the best division in football.


Or, more likely, we won’t.



Atlanta Falcons


Notable Additions:

  • HC Raheem Morris

  • QB Kirk Cousins

  • WR Darnell Mooney

  • SS Justin Simmons

  • WR Ray Ray McCloud

  • WLB Matthew Judon


Notable Departures:

  • HC Arthur Smith

  • TE Jonnu Smith

  • KR Cordarrelle Patterson

  • OLB Bud Dupree

  • QB Desmond Ridder


Notable Rookies:

  • QB Michael Penix Jr.


Best-Case: 12 - 5, 1st in the NFC South


This one’s easy.  The Falcons were good enough to finish 7 - 10 despite some bizarre coaching by Arthur Smith and some of the worst QB play in the entire league.  Now that Kirk Cousins is in the fold, the talent on offense is undeniable, and after making some savvy recent additions the defense looks ready to build on their modest 2023 performance too, especially with defensive specialist Raheem Morris now installed as head coach.


As a collective, the Falcons have arguably the best skills position players in the league.  Bijan Robinson may be the best running back in the league, and backup Tyler Allgeier is no slouch.  Top receiver Drake London isn’t exactly the prototype as a number one, he still wins with regularity – and it’s the rest of the receivers that really makes the Falcons stand out.


Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud are fantastic compliments to London with their speed and quickness, and if tight end Kyle Pitts meshes well with Cousins, they might see his prodigious athleticism finally shine.  If all this weren’t enough, Atlanta also features one of the best offensive lines in the game too.  They’re the total package – so long as Cousins can make it go.


Even defensively, there’s a lot going for the Falcons.  Safety Jessie Bates III had an All-Pro season after being signed from the Bengals, and the recent trade for Matt Judon beefens a pass rush that sorely needed a playmaker.  Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett remains disruptive as always, and A.J. Terrell has blossomed into a shutdown cornerback.  They have impact players at every level – even their kicker Younghoe Koo has become almost automatic within 40 yards.  We all understand how important quality QB play is; the Falcons are about to demonstrate it, maybe by threatening for the number one seed.


Worst-Case: 7 - 10, 3rd place in the NFC South


7 - 10 really would be the worst-case scenario for the Falcons, because this would be their fourth 7 - 10 season in a row.  That’s what misery looks like.  The Falcons think they got their ticket to contention with the Cousins signing, but they couldn’t be more wrong.


Cousins’ tenure with the Vikings is remembered as…pretty good, mostly.  He put up solid numbers, but in six seasons in Minnesota, the Vikings only made the playoffs twice.  It wasn’t like the Vikings were hurting for weapons either with Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielin all running routes for Cousins at one time or another over that span.  Jefferson, Diggs and Thielen have nine Pro Bowls and 6 All Pro nominations between them.  Among all the skill position players on the entire Falcons roster, there’s exactly one Pro Bowl appearance, courtesy of Pitts, and he hasn’t performed like the generational tight end he was sold to be.  The Falcons might have potential on offense, but right now, it’s conjecture at best.


And that’s not even getting into Cousins’ season-ending Achilles surgery last year.  Cousins’ game has never been about mobility, so that’s a positive, but if he’s limited even more than usual, the Falcons’ offense could be stuck in neutral much like it was in 2023.  Of course, the Falcons famously prepared for this eventuality by surprising the NFL world with their selection of QB Michael Penix Jr. in the first-round, but rookie QBs rarely light the world on fire, and by taking a QB with a high pick, the Falcons forfeited their ability to strengthen their D or add more talent around the brittle and aging Cousins.


Don’t expect the defense to pick up the slack either.  Morris is known as a defensive guru, but in his last three years as defensive coordinator with the Rams, his defenses never finished better than 15th in points or yards allowed.  That screams more “middle of the pack” than “top class.”  The Falcons as a team also scream middle of the pack.  Expect them to stay there.



Carolina Panthers


Notable Additions:

  • HC Dave Canales

  • RG Robert Hunt

  • LG Damien Lewis

  • DE A’Shawn Robinson

  • SLB Jadeveon Clowney

  • WR Dionte Johnson


Notable Departures:

  • ILB Frankie Luvu

  • DE Yetur Gross-Matos

  • CB Shaquille Griffin

  • SS Jeremy Chinn

  • DE Brian Burns

  • CB Donte Jackson


Notable Rookies:

  • WR Xavier Legette (pick #32)

  • RB Jonathan Brooks (pick #46)


Best-Case: 8 - 9, 2nd in the NFC South


Look, the Panthers aren’t in a great spot, but there’s some silver linings.  Bryce Young looked brutal in his rookie campaign, but it can’t get any worse, right?  Besides, the interior of the Panthers’ offensive line was atrocious, and they attacked that weakness in the offseason, adding two new starters in Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis.  Young can’t help that he’s small and doesn't have elite arm strength, but if the Panthers can provide him with consistent protection, he can showcase the field-reading ability that made him such a force at Alabama.  With new head coach Dave Canales ready to work the same magic on Young as he did on Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay, Young could look like a completely different player in year two.


The cupboard in Carolina isn’t bare either.  Dionte Johnson gives the Panthers the attention-drawing receiver they’ve been desperate for, and first-round pick Xavier Legette has a special combination of size and speed at the position as well.  If second-round pick Jonathan Brooks is recovered from his season-ending ACL tear at Texas, he gives the Panthers a home run threat at running back to go with Chuba Hubbard’s physical style and Miles Sanders’ versatility.  That’s a lot more to work with than what Young had in 2023.


Defensively, the loss of Brian Burns puts a dent on the pass rush, but the Panthers had the worst pass rush in the league with Burns anyway.  The offseason additions they made weren’t splashy, but they weren’t made with the intention of turning this team into a defensive juggernaut – just an adequate one.  If they can do that, and if the offense can take a strong step forward, this team could be frisky enough to fight for a playoff spot in a weak division.  Asking for much else, though, still feels a little out of reach of Bryce Young’s tiny arms.


Worst-Case: 2 - 15, 4th in the NFC South


Yeah, it could be another horrific season on repeat for Carolina.  Maybe it can’t get worse, but that doesn't mean it has to get better.


Young looked lost last year, and despite some new pieces, there’s no getting around the fact that he’s undersized, lacks zip on his passes to the sidelines, and doesn't have the athleticism to compensate for any of it.  It’s possible that, by the end of the year, the Panthers are already thinking about moving on.


Canales was hired to fix Young, but it’s a stretch to say he made Mayfield into anything other than an average QB.  Sure, that might have been an improvement from where Mayfield had been the previous two years, but we’ve seen Mayfield have limited success with the Browns too.  Both in Cleveland and in Tampa Bay, Mayfield had more to work with than Young does now – and even though he isn’t the tallest QB in the league, he has by no means a weak arm.


The receivers look better than they did previously, but that’s still not saying much.   While talented, Johnson isn’t exactly known for having his head in the game.  Last year’s top receiver Adam Thielin has lost a step, and Legette was a one-year wonder at South Carolina.  There’s nothing reliable about this group, and sadly, that’s what Young needs to succeed.


The defense looks in rough shape too, as Burns was far from the only significant departure this offseason.  Top corner Donte Jackson was shipped out in the Johnson-swap, and though they’re not household names, Frankie Luvu and Yetur Gross-Matos were both dependable in the Panthers front seven.  The talent on defense is overall worse than in 2023, and the offense doesn’t look much better.  It could be another long year for the Panthers.



New Orleans Saints


Notable Additions:

  • DE Chase Young

  • WR Cedric Young

  • LB Willie Gay Jr.

  • LG Lucas Patrick


Notable Departures:

  • DE Malcolm Roach

  • QB Jameis Winston

  • OG Andrus Peat

  • ILB Zack Baun

  • WR Michael Thomas


Notable Rookies:

  • LT Taliese Fuaga


Best-Case: 10 - 7, 1st in the NFC South


Derek Carr wasn’t very impressive in year one in New Orleans, but maybe he just needed to get used to that Cajun cooking.  This Saints team is deep, skilled, and plays with the attitude of an alligator.  They’re good enough to win the NFC South, and good enough to pull off a Round One upset in the playoffs too.


With the Saints, everything starts with their defense, which is loaded with studs.  Cam Jordan remains a beast of a defensive end, Demario Davis and Pete Warner form a formidable linebacker duo, and Marshawn Lattimore is one of the league’s best cover corners.  And that’s just the headliners!  The Saints could easily finish the season as a top-five defense.


Offensively, the Saints will be counting on improvement from Carr in year two, but that should be expected with his growing familiarity in the offense and the continued emergence of star receiver Chris Olave.  The ever-slippery Alvin Kamara is back at running back as well, and Rashid Shaheed brings a dose of track speed to the equation.  Carr’s protection should also be better after the Saints drafted their left tackle of the future Taliese Fuaga in the first-round to pair with 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning at right tackle.  There’s no team more balanced in the NFC South than the Saints, and that could lead to a lot of winning.


Worst-Case: 7 - 10, 3rd in the NFC South


In the three years since Drew Brees retired from football, the Saints have had two 9 - 8 seasons sandwiched between a 7 - 10 season, and unfortunately for the Who Dats, that could be where the Saints end up in 2024.  As well-rounded and deep as the Saints look, they have a fatal flaw: they’re coached by Dennis Allen and quarterbacked by Derek Carr.


Last year was – by far – the most successful season of Allen’s five years as an NFL head coach, and that’s really not something to celebrate considering his career win/loss record is 24 - 46.  Derek Carr also hasn’t been able to shake the label as a guy who can’t elevate his team, and that is a massive challenge for a Saints team that doesn’t have that much talent on offense.

Olave is dangerous, but Shaheed is more “dangerous in theory.”  Kamara is coming off the worst-season of his career and backup Jamaal Williams had to resort to Jameis Winston going rogue in the last game to get his first touchdown of the season.


The Saints should be good enough on defense to remain competitive in most games, but their offense doesn’t have enough juice to take advantage of it.  The Saints – in just about every way – are mediocre, and their record in 2024 will reflect that.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Notable Additions:

  • SS Jordan Whitehead

  • LG Ben Bredeson


Notable Departures:

  • OC Dave Canales

  • OLB Shaquille Barrett

  • ILB Devin White

  • CB Carlton Davis


Notable Rookies:

  • C Graham Barton (pick #26)

  • WR Jalen McMillan (pick #92)


Best-Case: 10 - 7, 1st in the NFC South


Oh yeah, Baker Mayfield is back in a big way!  After being left for dead by the Browns in 2022, Mayfield somehow found a way to keep his career alive following stints in Carolina and Los Angeles.  Last year, he signed with the Buccaneers and finally found his home, having the most efficient and productive season of his career.  And no one should be shocked if the good times continue to roll for the Bucs offense.


Mike Evans was re-signed in the offseason and he and Chris Godwin form one of the better WR duos in the league, while rookie Jalen McMillan has shown tons of promise in training camp as the team’s primary slot receiver.  An already reliable offensive line should be improved following the selection of first-round center Graham Barton, and that will make a huge difference for Mayfield and for breakout third-year running back Rachaad White.  Everywhere you look, the Bucs look dangerous on offense.


The same can be said about the defense.  Vita Vea remains immovable in the middle, while YaYa Diaby, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and last year’s first-rounder Calijah Kancey gives the Bucs the makings of a young and emerging pass rush.  Antoine Winfield Jr. also returns as one of the best all-around safeties in the league to lead the Bucs secondary.  This team might not have a ton of top-end talent, but they’re more than good enough to dominate a weak NFC South.


Worst-Case: 5 - 12, 4th in the NFC South


2023 was all sunshine and rainbows in Tampa with the feel-good Mayfield story buoying the team after all the uncertainty caused by Tom Brady’s retirement.  The Bucs managed to weather that storm, but it might be a lot harder in 2024.


As good as Mayfield has looked in Tampa, he’s never been a particularly consistent QB, as with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now in Carolina tutoring Bryce Young, it should shock no one if Mayfield starts to look a little more ordinary.  The weapons at his disposal aren’t exactly Earth-shattering either.  Evans and Godwin aren’t spring chickens anymore, and White couldn’t manage more than 3.6 yards per carry.  The Bucs didn’t get much out of their tight ends last year either, and if new center Barton is slow to acclimate to the NFL, this is a below-average offensive line.


There are plenty of holes on defense too.  Kancey wasn’t impressive in his rookie year, leaving Vea as the only down-to-down difference-maker on the D-line, and while David is a franchise-icon, he’s slowing down as he nears 35.  The secondary is also a concern, as the loss of Carlton Davis means a young group of corners will be more exposed than ever.  Head coach Todd Bowles will have to work some magic to keep this fragile ecosystem together, and it's doubtful he can with so many potential problems on the horizon.  The Bucs avoided catastrophe last year, but 2024 could have other plans.

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