Among all the divisions in the NFL, maybe none had more upheaval and turnover than the AFC East. Franchise icons have exited the scene, rosters have been churned, and a sense of uncertainty permeates the division’s entire landscape. Who these teams are – and what they’re truly capable of – is almost a complete mystery.
The Buffalo Bills have the brightest star in the division in quarterback Josh Allen, but he’s on an island these days after an aging Bills’ roster was stripped down and gutted. Considering Buffalo is the one team in the AFC East to even win a playoff game since 2018, it’s hard to count them out just because of a little personnel reshuffling – even if some of those shuffled out were former All Pros.
If we were evaluating NFL teams based just off All Pros added to a roster, the New York Jets might take the cake. Does the name Aaron Rodgers ring any bells? Okay, sure, he was technically signed last offseason, but his Achilles snapped like a twig on the eleventh play of the Jets’ season, so he’s an unofficial 2024 addition for the Jets. It’s impossible to know exactly how Rodgers will look in as a near-40-year-old QB coming off a major leg injury, but if the four-time MVP is back to full-strength, the Jets look like the best challenger to the Bills’ AFC East hegemony in years.
The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, is the party animal of the division, regularly attracting massive crowds of onlookers with their spectacular offensive production and flashy style. Miami is the cool team in the division. Too bad they end every year the same way: passed out before midnight. After they lost two of their most important lineman in the offseason, it’s safe to say the new season hasn’t begun quite as planned either. Whether they can ever mature into a serious threat to unseat the Bills is unclear at best.
And then there’s the New England Patriots, a sad, hollow, crippled shell of the once-great dynasty that ruled the AFC East – and the AFC in general – for nearly two decades. Former head coach Bill Belichick was semi-ceremoniously sent packing after 24 years of service, six Super Bowl wins, nine Super Bowl appearances, 30 playoff victories and a simply absurd seventeen division titles. Tom Brady is, of course, long gone too. What remains is unknowable (but probably bad).
Outside of the Patriots, though, this division is up for grabs. Buffalo has been the bully in recent years, but many of their most effective tormentors have moved on to…well, maybe not greener pastures necessarily, but definitely warmer. This could be the year the Dolphins launch themselves to new heights. Or maybe it’s finally the turn of the Jets to not disappoint their fan base. The AFC East has lacked the NFL’s trademark parity in recent years, but 2024 feels like an opportunity for change.
Buffalo Bills
Notable Additions:
WR Curtis Samuel
Notable Departures:
WR Gabriel Davis
DE Leonard Floyd
C Mitch Morse
ILB Tyrel Dodson
CB Tre’Davious White
WR Stefon Diggs
Notable Rookies:
Best-Case: 12 - 5, 1st in the AFC East
I know, I know – you look at that list of notable departures and you just cannot fathom how the Bills could be as good in 2024 as they were in 2023. But despite his obvious flaws, Josh Allen is a really good quarterback. And despite his numerous doubters, Sean McDermott is a really good head coach. And most of the players they lost were on the back nine of their careers anyway. The Bills may look a lot different this year, but that doesn't mean their quality of play will be.
The most important pieces are in place. Allen will keep the offense moving with his precision work as a passer and his game-breaking running ability, while McDermott does the heavy-lifting of maintaining one of the better defenses in the league. Running back James Cook provided the Bills with their first 1,000-yard rusher since LeSean McCoy back in 2017, and the Bills offensive line remains stout sans longtime center Mitch Morse.
McDermott, in particular, has conducted a defense that’s consistently finished near the top of the league in points and yards allowed, and in takeaways. That's the thwart trifecta. Now, McDermott will have to get it done with a more anonymous cast than ever, but that shouldn’t be a problem. Many of the Bills’ best defenders under McDermott were anonymous when they got there – that they left as stars should be a testament to McDermott’s work, not a detraction.
Defensive tackle Ed Oliver remains a significant disruptor in the middle of the Bills defense, while McDermott continues to demonstrate an uncanny knack for coaxing inspired play from unheralded linebackers and defensive backs. This unit isn’t as recognizable as it’s been in the past, but that means nothing for their future. The Bills are still a force to be reckoned with, and they are more than strong enough to dominate the AFC East for the fifth-consecutive year.
Worst-Case: 7 - 10, 3rd in the AFC East
The brain drain in Buffalo threatens to send the Bills tumbling down the AFC East standings. It’s likely no team in the NFL lost more institutional knowledge this offseason than Buffalo, and that’s quite the dilemma in a division that looks as frisky as it’s been in years.
Among the significant departures were former top receiver Stefon Diggs, outstanding safety duo Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, and elite cover corner Tre’Davious White. The four combined earned a whopping seven All-Pro nominations and eight Pro Bowl appearances. That’s gone now. Who will replace the production? The leadership? The work ethic? The dependability?
Things looked bleak at times for the Bills last year too. They were 6 - 6 in November, and it’s impossible to forget McDermott's now-infamous halftime speech that was made public in December. Somehow, the Bills kept it together to make a run – and even managed to win in Kansas City in Week Fourteen – but it was all for naught. They lost to the Chiefs in the playoffs anyway, in full view of their home crowd at Highmark Stadium. Utter devastation doesn’t even begin to describe it.
Gut-punches like that don’t fade quickly. Buffalo needed to move on, but apparently, they thought moving on from some of their most successful players was the way to do it. I’m skeptical. Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman aren’t adequate replacements for Diggs and Gabe Davis. Cole Bishop and Mike Edwards won’t fill Poyer and Hyde’s shoes. With linebacker Matt Milano now out indefinitely with a torn bicep less than a year after suffering a season-ending knee injury, and 2023 super-replacement Tyrel Dodson now in Seattle, the Bills are thinner than ever at linebacker too. The Bills have Allen, and that means they’ll always have a baseline of production at QB, but with little else to speak of, the Bills could be settling for their first mediocre season since 2018.
Miami Dolphins
Notable Additions:
ILB Jordyn Brooks
C Aaron Brewer
CB Kendall Fuller
TE Jonnu Smith
SS Jordan Poyer
DE Calais Campbell
Notable Departures:
DT Christian Wilkins
RG Robert Hunt
OLB Andrew Van Ginkle
NT Raekwon Davis
ILB Jerome Baker
FS DeShon Elliott
Notable Rookies:
WLB Chop Robinson (pick #21)
Best-Case: 12 - 5, 1st in the AFC East
No team has gas like the Miami Dolphins. They are the Madden-effect on professional football in real-time: put speed anywhere and everywhere, and then watch the fireworks. It’s worked pretty well so far, but in 2024, Miami could find a new gear. With Buffalo looking much weaker after a series of important offseason losses, the Jets having no guarantee whatsoever that Rodgers is back to his MVP-caliber self, and the Patriots looking like a team playing for 2025 and beyond, the AFC East could be for the Dolphins’ taking.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the two fastest receivers in football (though Chiefs rookie Xavier Worthy is raising his hand), and incredibly, they play for the same team. Everything the Dolphins do offensively starts with the enormous pressure Hill and Waddle put on opposing defensive backs, and head coach Mike McDaniel is a fantastic offensive mind who knows how to exploit those advantages.
QB Tua Tagovailoa is perfect for McDaniel’s system, demonstrating uncanny accuracy and sudden decisiveness in finding his two star WRs. Stud left tackle Terron Armstead headlines an adequate offensive line that protects Tua and opens holes for Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, who (of course) make up perhaps the NFL’s speediest RB duo. After finishing with the NFL’s best attack in 2023, expect more of the same in 2024.
I could spend another couple hundred words talking about the Dolphins defense here, but I won’t, and for two reasons: one, the offense will be carrying the load for Miami in 2024, and two, I think it’s enough to point out that the Dolphins signed an undrafted cornerback named Storm Duck to their 53-man roster. That’s a badass name. The Dolphins now, by extension, have a badass defense. That’s enough to win the division in my eyes.
Worst-Case: 8 - 9, 3rd in the AFC East
Tua joined the NFL’s $200-million club when he signed a four-year extension with the Dolphins in July, and yet, four years into his NFL career, his position as starting QB feels as tenuous as the day he got there. To be fair, backup Skylar Thompson isn’t much competition for Tua as a starter, but in terms of playoff viability, Tua remains questionable.
As previously mentioned, Hill and Waddle are ridiculously fast, so the Dolphins will always be hard to defend, but so far in his NFL career, Tua hasn’t shown the ability to play his best (or even particularly well) against the NFL’s best competition and in its toughest conditions. Maybe it’s unfair to glean too much from the Dolphins’ humbling Wild Card defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs in preposterously cold temperatures (-4℉ at kickoff), but then again, this is actually par for the course for Miami.
Last year, the Dolphins were 11 - 4 entering Week Seventeen, leading the AFC East with a shot to steal the number-one seed from the Baltimore Ravens and get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Two weeks later, the Dolphins not only blew their opportunity to leap the Ravens, but they ended up relinquishing control of the division to Buffalo. A week later, the Dolphins were being butchered by the Chiefs in sub-zero conditions. In 2022, they lost five games in a row after a 8 - 3 start and got whooped on the road in the playoffs. Sensing a pattern?
The Dolphins are flashier than anyone, but that flash hasn’t done much except make them the NFL’s premier fantasy football offense. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and offensive guard Robert Hunt were both poached and will be nearly impossible to replace. The Dolphins will continue to be explosive on offense, but the guts of this team feel weaker than before. That’s not enough to see Miami completely implode, but after two years of playoff football, the Dolphins could be on the outside in 2024.
New England Patriots
Notable Additions:
QB Jacoby Brissett
LT Chukwuma Okorafor
Notable Departures:
ILB Mack Wilson
LT Trent Brown
QB Mac Jones
CB J.C. Jackson
Notable Rookies:
QB Drake Maye (pick #3)
WR Ja’Lynn Polk (#37)
Best-Case: 7 - 10, 3rd in the AFC East
I’ll try to be as kind as possible here. The Patriots aren’t a playoff team, but they can be a spoiler down the stretch and get their fanbase fired up for the future.
Long-term, there’s definitely reason for optimism. Jerrod Mayo is a perfect fit to replace Bill Belichick as head coach as a former Patriots mainstay and team captain, who helped the Pats win Super Bowl XLIX and reach five conference championships. He’s a natural leader and motivator, but more importantly, a player’s-coach who will connect far better with a younger roster than a 70-something Belichick. And that’s critical because, with the third pick in the draft, the Patriots selected a QB to be their future cornerstone – North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
Right now, Maye isn’t expected to start Week One – that honor goes to former Patriot Jacoby Brissett – but down the line, don’t be surprised if the ultra-talented Maye leads the Pats to a couple of outta-nowhere victories. In the meantime, the steady and dependable Brissett gives Mayo a foundation of production to work with as the new head coach whips his defense into tip-top shape.
On that side of the ball, at least, the Patriots should be in good shape. Defensive tackle Christian Barmore is a stud in the middle, Jahlani Tavai and Ja’Whaun Bentley are an underrated linebacker duo, and Christian Gonzalez is a rising star at cornerback. The poor state of the offense probably precludes a playoff run, but if Maye’s a hit, this team could be back in contention before long.
Worst-Case: 2 - 15, 4th in the AFC East
Okay, I’ve been nice enough: the Pats might have, top-to-bottom, the worst roster in football and, given we know nothing about Mayo at all as a head coach, they may have the worst coaching situation in football too. The Patriots are in full-blown rebuild mode, and that means a rough season could be in store for Pats fans.
Brissett is acceptable as a backup, but he shouldn’t be starting in the NFL for anyone. If Maye can’t beat him out – even as a rookie – that’s not a great sign. The rest of the offense is abysmal as well. An offensive line that was already struggling lost its left tackle in free agency, a run game that wasn’t effective was barely acknowledged, and a receiving corp bereft of talent remains equally dismal. And that’s just the problems on offense.
Barmore is an effective player, but blood clot issues have limited him in the past. No one else in the front seven gets to the QB with any regularity. If Barmore is out for an extended period of time, the Patriots defense will be strained beyond its capability. The Pats just aren’t built for 2024, and their record could reflect that.
New York Jets
Notable Additions:
LG John Simpson
WR Mike Williams
DT Javon Kinlaw
LT Tyron Smith
DE Hasson Reddick
RT Morgan Moses
Notable Departures:
OLB Bryce Huff
SS Jordan Whitehead
DE Quinton Jefferson
QB Zach Wilson
Notable Rookies:
LT Olu Fashanu (pick #11)
Best-Case: 13 - 4, 1st in the AFC East
The Jets have a very talented roster, full stop. When Aaron Rodgers was sidelined last year, it was assumed the Jets were toast. Instead, even with QB Zach Wilson airmailing passes at an alarming, but unsurprising, rate, the Jets managed to finish a respectable, if disappointing, 7 - 10. Their offense, predictably, was a disaster, but the defense…that was something to behold.
The 2023 Jets defense finished third in yards allowed, second in yards allowed per play, and seventh in sacks despite blitzing just 16.3% of the time (second-lowest rate in the NFL). That would be enough to get anyone excited, but there’s reason to believe the Jets could be even better defensively in 2024. Star pass rusher Haason Reddick was acquired in April to pair with second-year standout Jermaine Johnson, while defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw was signed to provide some push up the middle alongside perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Quinnen Williams. A secondary that features possibly the NFL’s stickiest corner in Sauce Gardner, that’s a seriously tough ask for opposing offenses.
Of course, it’s Rodgers who will determine how far the Jets can go, and the four-time MVP has all the skills and know-how to make the Jets one of the best teams in football this year. He won’t be going at it alone either. Receiver Garrett Wilson has emerged as a dynamic playmaker even without Rodgers throwing him the ball, and running back Breece Hall is electric in the open field. Even the offensive line, which was a problem in 2023, was reinforced with multi-time All Pro Tyron Smith at left tackle and the ever-reliable Morgan Moses on the other side. This team has depth and star power everywhere, and a QB to make the most of it. The Jets could very well be the class of the AFC.
Worst-Case: 5 - 12, 4th in the AFC East
It just never goes as planned when Aaron Rodgers is around. Last year it was the Achilles, which wasn’t his fault, but this year, it’s questions about his dedication. Instead of showing up for a mandatory (repeat, mandatory) minicamp in June, Rodgers thought a better use of his time was galivanting around the pyramids in Egypt. If Rodgers wants to explore ancient cultures, that’s his business, but the Jets are in the business of getting out of this thirteen-year rut they’ve been in since they last reached the postseason. Rodgers, it appears, isn’t taking his role as de facto team leader seriously.
This is compounded by head coach Robert Salah’s utter lack of a competent track record. While his defenses have been (mostly) up to the task, he’s failed miserably in developing a competent offense. Awful QB play has been the primary culprit. Rodgers was supposed to fix all of that, but if he’s uncommitted – or, just as likely, isn’t the same player he used to be – the Jets could struggle all the same.
The Jets did make notable additions to their offensive line in an effort to protect Rodgers, but Smith is getting old and can’t stay healthy, Moses is no spring chicken either, and John Simpson has never been much more than an average player. The Jets are betting big on massive improvement, but that’s far from guaranteed. If their offensive line remains a liability, the Jets’ season could be sunk.
The bad vibes don’t end there. Despite trading for Reddick months ago, the former All Pro has refused to show up for practice without a new contract. Reddick was supposed to supplement the loss of pass-rush extraordinaire Bruce Huff, who signed with Philadelphia in the offseason, but the Jets could be getting nothing instead. Smith is already questionable for Week One as well, and so is fellow free-agent signing and injury-watch receiver Mike Williams. In the NFL, it’s often said that availability is the best ability, and the Jets are failing that before the season’s even started. If you’re looking for the NFL’s biggest boom-or-bust team, this is it, and bust looks like another wasted season for New York.
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