A few weeks ago, no one could have blamed you for thinking the Cincinnati Bengals were done. After losing 44 - 38 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13 – a team that has scored 57 points combined in their next three games – it felt like rock bottom for a Bengals team that had turned hard times into something of an art form. Incredibly, against all odds, the Bengals are alive. Maybe not alive and well, but hey, who’s complaining?
Beating the Cleveland Browns this past Sunday was important for two big reasons. One, it meant the playoffs are still within (distant) reach. And two, it marked the first time in the Zac Taylor-era that the Bengals managed to defeat the Browns twice in one season.
There were probably some who looked at the Browns’ 3 - 11 record and expected a win, but those of us who have been watching the Bengals closely all year understood that nothing can be taken for granted with this Bengals team. Yes, the Browns are bad. Yes, Dorian Thompson-Robinson is probably a practice-squad player moonlighting as an NFL quarterback. All signs pointed to a Bengals victory – but then again, the signs have been pointing to a lot of victories, and the Bengals only have seven of them through fifteen weeks.
So, while there certainly is plenty to celebrate with the win, it didn’t do all that much to ease the concerns of the Bengals faithful. The six points they allowed to the Browns was the fewest the defense has surrendered all year, but that was more reflective of the Browns’ ineptitude than anything else. Turns out, it’s easy to play defense when the other team keeps giving you the ball!
On offense too, questions remain. The Browns do feature one of the greatest pass rushers of the 21st century in Myles Garrett, but even taking that into account, the Bengals offensive line continues to have its issues, and that’s without mentioning the absence of left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and now-injured right tackle Amarius Mims. Joe Burrow continues to play like the NFL’s greatest showman (like an insane combination of Houdini and a matador), but the hits are starting to add up. The Bengals need their offense to be firing on all cylinders to beat even mediocre teams – what happens if Burrow gets dinged? I don’t even want to think about it…
How can the Bengals be so mediocre with Joe Burrow playing so well?
This is a trick question because there really is no answer. This shouldn’t be possible – and yet, it is.
Burrow is having an MVP-caliber season and it’s all for naught. He leads the league in passing touchdowns, passing yards, and completed passes, is third in the league in passer rating, and is sixth in the league in completion percentage and interception percentage. He’s playing like the best quarterback in the league, but because of the Bengals’ issues everywhere else, they’re in danger of missing out on the postseason anyway. How is this happening?
For starters, the defense is atrocious. As of today – even after Sunday’s fairly impressive performance – the Bengals rank 28th in the NFL in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. Only two other teams rank in the bottom 28 of the league in both of those categories: the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers, two of the worst teams in the NFL. That, to put it mildly, is not great company.
In recent history, there’s really only one other NFL team that combined such offensive potency with complete defensive ineptitude: the New Orleans Saints of the mid-2010s. In 2012, Drew Brees led the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns. The Saints finished 7 - 9 with a defense that ranked 31st in points allowed and 32 in yards allowed. Sound familiar?
So, there is precedent for the Bengals’ predicament. The scary part, though, is this wasn’t just a one-off season for the Saints. Brees had a losing record as a starter for the Saints five times, and in those five seasons, Brees led the NFL in passing yards in four of them. In such a QB-dominated league, one could be forgiven for assuming that QB-play, for the most part, determined the outcomes of seasons. Sadly, there are some outlier cases, and the Saints and Bengals are proof.
Can the Bengals withstand all these late-season injuries?
It hasn’t been much of a storyline for the Bengals (and considering those storylines have to compete with Burrow’s heroics, the Ja’Marr Chase triple-crown season, and a defense that makes Chuck Bresnahan look like Buddy Ryan, it’s really no wonder), but this team has been ravaged by injuries all season. Burrow, Chase, and Trey Hendrickson have been durable as always, but key players have hit the shelf intermittently all season long.
Tee Higgins has missed five games this season. Free agent right tackle Trent Brown was done for the year after Week 3, while his replacement Amarius Mims left the game Sunday with an ankle injury in the first half. On the other side of the O-line, left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. has missed six games, meaning Cody Ford has had to play major snaps. The interior of the line has gotten plenty of heat (and deservedly so), but as bad as this season has been for that group, at least they’ve managed to stay on the field.
The defense hasn’t been spared the injury-bug either, and it’s been a problem from Week One when the loss of defensive tackles B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins mid-game meant stopping Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson became a foregone conclusion. Hill has at least returned and been the same, reliable presence in the middle, but Rankins has now missed the last five games with an undisclosed illness and wasn’t all that effective when he was playing anyway. On top of that, cornerback Dax Hill was lost for the year after Week 5, linebacker Logan Wilson and cornerback D.J. Turner II hit the shelf after Week 11, and defensive end Sam Hubbard was done after Week 14.
If there’s one positive to the Bengals current injury situation, it’s that the backups have started playing a bit better, so there hasn’t been a steep decline in performance. Ford has been solid enough at left tackle in place of Brown, while rookie defensive tackles Kris Jenkins and McKinnley Jackson are making an impact on defense. Most encouragingly, backup corners Josh Newton and D.J. Ivey have kept the Bengals competitive in the secondary (with Newton, in particular, playing sneaky good football), while Cam Taylor-Britt has slowly stabilized his incredibly erratic early-season play. So, the Bengals definitely can withstand these injuries, so long as “these injuries” doesn’t begin to include Burrow or Chase.
Is the defense figuring it out, or are they just facing terrible quarterbacks?
We’ll call “figure it out” a relative term, because the Bengals will not be mistaken for the Kansas City Chiefs or Philadelphia Eagles on defense at any point this year, but for a team that’s allowed an average of 26.2 points per game this season, allowing an average of 17.7 over their last three is a monumental achievement on par with manned-spaceflight or being able to sit through an entire episode of Love Island. Here’s the problem, though: in those three games, the quarterbacks they faced were Cooper Rush, Will Levis-then-Mason Rudolph, and finally, Thompson-Robinson. That’s a pitiful group.
Turnovers have also played a major role in the Bengals’ recent success on defense. They’ve collected eleven takeaways in the last three games, an average of 3.6 per game, a wildly unsustainable number. For reference, the Steelers lead the NFL in takeaways with 31, and they average a much-more reasonable 2.1 takeaways per game. The Bengals are fortunate in two ways: they’ve faced some pathetic quarterbacks, and the ball has been bouncing their way too. That’s not a recipe for sustained defensive success.
But still, there is a chance, at least, that the Bengals have improved enough in some areas to be below-average on defense, as opposed to an abject disaster. Taylor-Britt’s steady, if unspectacular, play in recent weeks is a major development, as is the progress of Jenkins and Jackson at defensive tackle. The Bengals aren’t going to beat a good opponent this season because of their defense, but they could do well enough to stay out of the offense's way. That couldn’t be said for much of the season, and that gives the Bengals a fighting chance down the stretch.
Why haven’t the Bengals been able to beat a good team all season?
There are about a dozen reasons. Here are a few:
One, ill-timed turnovers. Tanner Hudson’s fumble against New England, Burrow’s fumble against Kansas City, Burrow’s late pick against Baltimore in Week 5, Chase Brown’s fumble against Baltimore in Week 10, Burrow’s fumble against Pittsburgh…make it stop, please! All turnovers are bad, but some of the turnovers the Bengals have committed this year have been downright miserable.
Two, the defense. There’s been plenty said about the D already, but here’s a quick summation: they can’t stop the run, and they can’t stop the pass. In short, they do nothing well. That’s how you hold back the league’s most potent passing attack.
Three, injuries. Of course, no one wants to hear this excuse (as they shouldn’t), but injuries have played a big role in the outcomes of some of these games. Against New England, having one or both of Hill or Rankins would have been invaluable, while adding Higgins to their passing game would have been just as impactful for the offense. The same can be said for the Kansas City game. Injuries played a big role in both losses to Baltimore. It would have been awfully nice to have Wilson, Turner and Brown for the Pittsburgh game.
Four, inconsistent coaching. Zac Taylor has been alternatively too cautious and too aggressive. There hasn’t been any consistency to the Bengals coaching philosophy and they’ve been far more reactive than proactive. Personnel probably doomed the defense from the start, but Lou Anarumo’s inability to adapt his scheme has been a recurring problem. Offensively, the statistics and highlight plays look nice on the surface, but between gut-wrenching turnovers and the ever-leaky offensive line, there’s plenty of reason to have concern if the Bengals do miraculously make the playoffs.
In short, the Bengals haven’t beat a good team all year because they’re extremely flawed. Their offense is absurdly talented, but the defense can never hold a lead. They’re good enough to stay close with anyone, but they’re always one turnover or ill-timed sack away from doom. The coaching deserves plenty of blame, but personnel issues have weighed this team down considerably as well.
On any given Sunday, the Bengals could overcome one (or maybe even two) of these issues and still win against a good team, but not all of these problems. Unless the Bengals have suddenly patched those leaky holes with nothing but Elmer’s glue and a used sock, it’s hard to see the Bengals being able to beat the Denver Broncos this Saturday. Then again, crazier things have happened – I mean, have you watched the Bengals this year?
Will the Bengals make the playoffs?
Yes
No
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