Andrew Abbott Has an Arm Angle Issue

Andrew Abbott's arm angle has shifted in a subtle, but significant way – and not for the better.

There's something off about Andrew Abbott this year. That has been obvious since spring training. But, what exactly, is this issue?

The 26 year old lefthander has been a consistent starter for the Cincinnati Reds, but last year was his coming out party. He made his first All-Star team, finished with a 10 - 7 record, a 2.87 ERA, and 5.5 WAR. He was one of the best pitchers in the National League, full stop.

In 2026, that's all coming crashing down.

Through four starts, his ERA is up to 5.85.

His WHIP is up from 1.15 in 2025 to 1.70 in 2026.

His K% is in the bottom 8% of the MLB. His walk rate is up, and his hard-hit rate is up.  His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .274 last year.  That’s up to .353.

No matter which way you look at it, Abbott is struggling.  But what’s changed?

It’s actually simple – his arm angle.

As a rookie in 2023, Abbott came into the league with an arm angle of 45°.  For reference, that’s basically exactly in between being a completely overhand thrower, and a completely sidearm thrower.  That number was 45° in 2024, and moved to 48° in his All-Star 2025 season.  In 2026, that number climbed to 52°.

Abbott was thriving at the 48° arm angle.  He’s not thriving anymore at 52°.  Intentionally or unintentionally, this one tweak has created a ripple effect that’s turned one of the Reds best pitchers into a replacement-level player.

Despite having below-average velocity, Abbott has always used his fastball as his primary pitch.  His combination of a deceptive delivery made it difficult to pick up out of his hand.  His aggressive mentality in attacking the strike zone meant he was always ahead in the count.  The life on his fastball, and his ability to locate it at the top of the zone, made him an absolute pain for hitters.

Thanks to his new arm angle, that entire profile has changed – and not for the better.

That lively fastball?  It’s not so lively anymore.  Last year, Abbott’s fastball moved horizontally to his arm about 1.9 inches more than comparable fastballs.  This year, the horizontal movement he’s getting on his fastball is negligible compared to similar fastballs (0.0 inches vs comparable).  It’s still a solid pitch (96 Stuff+ in 2025 vs. 94 Stuff+ in 2026), but it’s just not missing bats like it used to.

It’s also affecting his changeup, which was his top secondary pitch when he broke out in 2025.  Last year, Abbott generated 1.2 inches of horizontal movement to his arm side with that changeup vs. comparable changeups.  This year, that number has fallen to 0.4 vs. comparable.  His changeup quality has gone from 95 Stuff+ to an abysmal 81.

In other words, this slight shift in arm angle has devastated two of Abbott’s top pitches.  He’s also essentially stopped throwing his cutter and sweeper.  This begs the question: why?

Unfortunately, there’s not a simple explanation.

One likely reason is Abbott and the Reds saw the change in arm angle from 2024 to 2025 (45° to 48°) and it produced magnificent results.  Possibly, the expectation was that the more overhand Abbott threw, the more he’d continue to improve.  That has not been the case.

However, that’s not to say there hasn’t been any improvement.  His curveball, which has always been a solid offering, now features some truly elite horizontal break.  It’s risen from 2.1 inches of glove-side horizontal break vs. comparable curveballs to 3.2 inches, and he’s getting more vertical drop on the pitch too.  That is unmistakably positive.

Sadly, it hasn’t exactly translated to on-field results.

Despite the pitch being, in theory, “improved,” Abbott’s curveball is getting rocked this year.  Batters have a .357 BA against the pitch with a .571 SLG.  Basically, when Abbott throws his curveball, hitters turn into Joe DiMaggio.

This one mechanical change has triggered a series of compounding problems:

1. His fastball has lost life, so hitters are able to make more contact despite the pitch remaining above-average in a vacuum.

2. His changeup has gone solid to completely unviable.

3. His curveball is marginally better than last year, but hitters are ready for it because they don’t respect his changeup.

4. His reduced feel for his pitches has driven his walk rate up and forced him to all but abandon two pitches.

5. With batters more reliably able to make contact, Abbott’s BABIP has spiked.

There are a couple caveats: one, Abbott’s .353 BABIP is likely unsustainably high.  His ERA of 5.85 has a lot to do with pure bad luck, but his xERA of 4.82 confirms that his performance has been generally poor.  Two, despite the poor peripheral stats, Abbott’s Barrel% and Hard-Hit% haven’t cratered.

So, there is hope.  Abbott has been bad, but he hasn’t been that bad – at least, not as bad as his stats might suggest.  And realistically, getting Abbott back to his 2025 form might be as simple as getting that arm angle back to its 2025 spot.

Making that change may cost him some of that curveball movement, but it’s not like his curveball is doing him a lot of favors right now anyway.  The boost he gets from getting his fastball and changeup back to adequate levels far exceeds the loss of a diminished curveball.

It’s still early in the season, so there’s no reason to panic, but Abbott’s performance has certainly been a drain on a Reds team that desperately needs its pitchers to hold down the fort until the offense can get its act together.  They need peak Abbott – and a slight mechanical shift might be all he needs to rediscover his success.